A r c h i v e d  I n f o r m a t i o n

U.S. Secretary of Education Richard W. Riley said 52.2 million students are expected to attend school this fall, with the bulk of the increase at the high school level.

According to the second annual back to school report, prepared by the Education Department's National Center for Education Statistics, total public and private school enrollment this fall will surpass last fall's all time high of more than 51 million students.

Riley said the increases will continue unabated for the next decade and call for serious solutions to the school overcrowding problems that many school districts are experiencing. Increases are expected to peak at 54.3 million in 2007.

"Portable classrooms and short term solutions just don't cut it," Riley said. "We need to build some 6,000 additional schools in the next 10 years. Children shouldn't spend their entire educational experience going to schools in portable classrooms. Right now school overcrowding is a local concern, but it has the potential to become a national crisis."

According to the report, the largest increase will be among teenagers. From the fall of 1997 through 2007, the nation's schools can expect a 13 percent increase in grades 9 through 12, a five percent increase in grades six through eight, and a one percent decrease in grades one through five.

Overall, public elementary and secondary enrollment is projected to increase by four percent over the next ten years, with western states having the largest increases -- California is expecting the largest percent increase of almost 16 percent. Idaho, Arizona, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and Georgia join California as states with increases of more than ten percent. Twenty states and the District of Columbia can expect a decrease.

"This is not like the peak enrollment in 1971, when after a few years, it leveled off and started declining," Riley said. "From now until 2007, we will see a steady increase of students, and we won't see that number start to decline for quite a few years after 2007. At that time, we expect to have a record 54.3 million students. We've got to start preparing for that now."

For example, the Virginia Beach School District was among the top 25 school districts with the largest enrollment increases from 1984 to 1994. For the past 15 years, the district's number of students has grown by 39.2 percent. Currently, several schools are about 15 percent over their capacity. They are either planning to open a new school or have another classroom added to an existing school. Furthermore, three schools are currently under construction, while renovations and additional classrooms are being added to another 13 schools. Also, the Virginia Beach School District currently uses about 360 portable classrooms.

Riley also stressed that the demand for teachers would rise with increased student enrollment. He said that about two million more teachers will be needed for the next decade. While the enrollment increases will not bring about teacher shortages in all schools, many schools, particularly those in high poverty urban and rural areas, already have difficulty attracting and retaining qualified teachers.

And many schools may need more teachers in specific subjects such as math and science. "We need to do all we can to ensure that all students have qualified teachers who can teach to high standards," Riley said.

The report said that the number of high school graduates will increase by 18 percent over the next ten years, with about half of the states having at least a 15 percent increase; western states will have a 25 percent increase in high school graduates. Full time college enrollment is expected to increase by 21 percent in the next ten years.

The report cites several factors for the rising enrollments: a delay in marriage and child bearing among baby boomers; minorities, especially Hispanics, have higher birth rates than whites, and Hispanics are fast becoming the largest segment of the enrollment population as a result; immigration; and students staying in school longer.

NOTE TO EDITORS: The report will be released at 9:45 a.m. on August 21 at a press conference at the U.S. Department of Education, 600 Maryland Avenue, SW, Room 2411.

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